Insight & news /
What did we learn from Conservative Party Conference?
- Kemi is in absolute charge. A year ago she was under pressure and accused of being lazy. Now she is the party’s best asset by far, and is giving interviews saying “It’s my party now.” This is true for now, but if the Conservative poll rating continues to flatline around 20%, and in particular if it does not start consistently out-performing Reform, watch this space in another year’s time.
- The Right Way is the new Bible for Tories. In a conscious echo of Margaret Thatcher, this thirty-thousand word document sets out an underlying philosophy from which all future Tory policies will be derived.
- It’s mostly the economy, stupid. Much of the essay is devoted to re-establishing Tory credentials as low-tax, deregulatory, pro-business and fiscally responsible. This emphasis on the economy as the main battleground was reflected in the conference messages, which were designed to take on Labour and Reform. The Tories are delighted at the sight of a Labour Government further to the left, which gives them a political gap for free-market arguments.
- But not entirely. Intriguingly, there is space in The Right Way for some culture war remarks, with a stark declaration that the problems of today are more difficult than the economic basket case Margaret Thatcher was facing in the 1970s. The thesis is that society is under threat in a way that is new, with some groups rejecting liberal democracy altogether. This is not just aimed at the woke left. The most powerful two minutes of oratory at the Conference was Kemi Badenoch attacking those from Reform and Restore who deny that she and her children are properly British. The Tory Party leapt to its feet spontaneously to applaud this. Which means…
- Unite the Right is dead – for now. It is inconceivable that a pre-election deal between the Conservatives and Reform can happen. There are now significant policy differences even on immigration to add to the personal bad blood that flows between the leaderships of the two parties. What happens after a General Election will, of course, be dictated by the maths of the new Parliament.
- The first 80 seats they think they can win back are in the South. The announcements on Inheritance Tax and childcare costs are aimed squarely at affluent traditional Conservative voters who are largely (not entirely) in the south of England. The long-time strategist Stephen Gilbert is behind this pitch, which fits neatly with the movement further to the right by Nigel Farage to head off the wilder appeal of Rupert Lowe’s Restore party. This in turn opens up another gap on the centre-right. So far Kemi’s team has been somewhere between cool and hostile towards Andy Street’s explicitly centre-right Prosper UK organisation, but the logic of this new strategy suggests there could be mutually beneficial business done.
- The party activists are cheerful, but business is more cautious. Although there was a happy buzz around the conference halls and bars, the number of businesses paying for stalls in the exhibition was down. One area which is normally packed with stalls was empty apart, perhaps symbolically, from the GB news stand. The presence of business will be a key indicator at next year’s conference.
- One dog that did not bark was Brexit, despite the invitation given by Andy Burnham at the previous week’s Labour conference. The prospect of re-running the whole debate would be a nostalgic thrill for some Conservatives, but the leadership has decided that it wants to stick to its central message. If it wants and needs to win back those seats in Surrey, Oxfordshire, Berkshire and Kent that are top of the wanted list, it will not want to be driven onto territory which Farage would love.
- The next 12 months are about moving the party’s poll rating. The most-often repeated lie in politics is “We never look at individual polls”. All politicians obsess about them, and the absolute key task for the Conservatives is to establish a poll rating above Reform’s. This will change the dynamics on the right and give former Tory voters a reason to return home. Also, if the right-wing vote is less divided, it might give Andy Burnham pause in pushing the button on an Election next May, which was the central forecast in the Birmingham bars.
- As MPs return to Westminster, in the country candidate selection is now starting at some pace. The first seats are already selecting and by the early months of next year candidates will be in place in dozens of winnable seats (winnable unless the poll rating stays at 20%, of course). Some ex-MPs have been told they can only stand in their old seat, which has caused a degree of distress. The final thought is that Kemi herself believes she can win that election, despite her starting position in being so low. She has convinced her party activists. Now for the more difficult job.