The Robbins fallout: Three implications for business

First, it has further weakened the Prime Minister. It has obviously done that by reviving the Mandelson story and giving it fresh legs – plus reminding everyone that there’s plenty more to come, with Select Committee hearings, and document release.

But it’s also pretty clear that the Prime Minister made an unforced error, sacking Robbins in the way that he did. Instead of summary dismissal, the PM could have demanded an urgent report on the facts, giving him a proper evidence base for action, HR and otherwise. It’s this unnecessary decision that has driven successive rounds of Select Committee hearings, massive media coverage and Whitehall psychodrama – and most Cabinet Ministers, Labour MPs and journalists know it.

Second, this episode has strained relations inside Government in a fairly massive way. I mean particularly relations between the Cabinet Office/No10 and departments. I’d say that this is about both Ministers and officials in these departments as much or more than the usual story between Ministers and officials.

Relations between the Cabinet Office and departments are often strained. David Willetts, the former universities and science Minister, said in an interview after he left office ten years ago that the Cabinet Office is “the worst department of Government by a long margin”. At heart this is about the imbalance between power and responsibility – people feel the Cabinet Office has lots of the first and carries much less of the second.

This is the first big crisis for Antonia Romeo as Cabinet Secretary, and it’s going to be a big test for her to rebuild trust and relationships across the top of the system.

Finally, all of this could obviously be overtaken by the results on 7 May and their consequences, But assume we are in a world – at least for months – of a weak No10: don’t under-estimate the potential for achieving change. Ambitious, effective Ministers will look to seize the moment, and exploit their freedom – above all if they can form an effective alliance with the Treasury.