The era of two-party dominance is gone: How May’s local elections are shaping up to spread power across the political spectrum

Local politics across Britain is more competitive and fragmented than it has been in decades. The era of two-party dominance is gone, with both Labour and the Conservatives in the dark around how many of their traditional backers will turn out in support. Emerging parties are gaining strength and voter loyalty is less predictable, meaning even small swings in vote share could entirely change who controls and who influences councils across the UK.

For organisations trying to navigate the political landscape, that fragmentation matters.

London’s fracturing in real time

London is the clearest example of this shift. Long regarded as a Labour stronghold, the capital is now a multi-party battleground. In inner boroughs like Camden, Islington, Hackney, Newham, Lewisham, Southwark, Lambeth and possibly Haringey, Labour’s vote may be less secure than it looks on paper. The demographic mix in these areas (affluent middle-class voters, large ethnic minority communities, students and white working-class communities) mirrors that of Gorton and Denton, where the recent Green victory has shaken assumptions about Labour’s resilience. A strong Green showing across inner London would reinforce the risk of progressive vote splitting.

Reform is likely to perform strongly in boroughs like Bexley, Bromley, Hillingdon, Havering, Barking and Dagenham, and Sutton, many of which voted Leave in 2016. At the same time, the Conservatives are hopeful that they can take back Wandsworth and Westminster, the high-profile councils Labour won from them in 2022, as well as shoring up support in Harrow and Hillingdon. They face their own squeeze in places like Merton, where the contest is expected to be between Labour and the Liberal Democrats.

Emerging battlegrounds beyond the capital

This fragmentation is not just a London story. In parts of the southern Blue Wall, politics is being shaped by tensions over planning reform and new energy infrastructure. In counties including Oxfordshire and Warwickshire, many communities feel national growth and net zero targets are being pushed through without enough local input. This is playing into the hands of the Liberal Democrats. Meanwhile, in newly reorganised areas like East and West Surrey, uncertainty about the move to unitary councils is also influencing voter attitudes.

Further north, economic pressures are driving the political mood. In parts of the Midlands and North, struggling high streets and stalled regeneration have created a sense that progress has slowed. This environment makes anti-establishment messages more powerful. A central question now, is whether Reform UK can turn its rising polling support into lasting council representation come May.

Other key areas to watch

Major elections in Scotland and Wales will also take place on the 7th of May, with the potential to reshape politics in both devolved nations and offer a clear signal of the UK’s wider political persuasions. In Wales, the Senedd election marks the biggest change to Welsh politics since devolution in 1999. The Parliament will expand from 60 to 96 members and move to a more proportional voting system, making it far less likely that any party will win outright control. Recent polling from More in Common suggests a tightly contested race, with Plaid Cymru and Reform UK tied at 26% and Labour trailing not far behind. If that pattern holds, Plaid and Reform could emerge with similar seat totals, raising the possibility of the first non-Labour First Minister since devolution. The Greens are also poised for historic gains.

In Scotland, all 129 Members of Holyrood will be up for election. The mixed voting system means small shifts in support can have big effects on seat numbers. Current polling here paints the SNP as the largest force, though Reform UK is gaining ground and Labour is still trying to rebuild after years of weaker performance. Another important factor is turnover among Scotland’s political leadership, with around a third of MSPs standing down, and several members of the current Cabinet expected to leave after the election. This means the next parliamentary term will likely begin with a significant influx of new MSPs and ministers, potentially opening the door to fresh policy debates.

What are we hearing on the doorsteps?

On the doorstep, members of WA’s team standing as local council candidates in England are hearing residents speak about the practical, everyday realities affecting their communities, rather than party ideology. Voters talk about the cost of living, council tax, housing repairs, damp and mould, fly tipping and access to GPs. There is also a sense of mid-term frustration among some who feel that promised change has yet to translate into greater household financial security.

Younger voters tend to raise housing affordability and student loan repayments. Older voters focus more on health and social care. Tactical voting is also becoming more common, with many asking which party is best placed locally to stop another from winning. Reform is attracting interest, but some voters remain unsure about its experience and readiness for office.

So, what does this mean for business?

For those seeking to engage with policymakers, the results of the May elections are likely to have wide-ranging implications.

Results could destabilise the Government and shift policy priorities

A poor Labour performance would intensify the debate already underway about the Prime Minister’s leadership. For businesses, any replacement at the top could create a period of uncertainty, with policymaking slowing as attention turns inward. Any leadership change would also likely trigger a wider Cabinet reshuffle and possible shifts in policy priorities as a result of this.

Demonstrating local value and building your economic case will matter more than ever

Strong local relationships can influence decision making at a national level. What councillors and regional leaders say about projects and campaigns feeds into what MPs hear from their constituencies. Organisations will need to clearly explain how their work benefits local communities, whether that’s value add through jobs, economic growth, skills development or strengthening public services. Those that can clearly demonstrate how they contribute to local priorities will be better placed to build support and strengthen their position in discussions with national government.

Limited political bandwidth makes cut through harder

With much of the Government’s focus on fiscal pressures and electoral politics, political attention is limited. Businesses will need clear and well-evidenced messages that align with current priorities such as growth and value for money, in order to gain traction at Westminster level.

Local decision-making will become slower and more complex

Businesses should expect decisions on planning, investment and procurement contracts to take longer in some areas. Councils without clear majorities are often governed through negotiation. This means engaging early with councils, combined authorities and regional leaders will be important to keep projects moving.

Overarchingly, political power in the UK is spreading across more parties and more places. Businesses that understand local politics, build relationships early and clearly communicate their value to the communities they operate in, will be best placed to navigate the wider political landscape post-May.